6
Bellavalencia
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 40
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/06/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |