9
Constitutionalist
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 56
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/09/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 29% | -0.60 |