Photo Finish
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 60
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/11/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 29% | -0.60 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |