4
Smiles For David
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 54
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |