8
Super Honey Timber
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 68
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 20/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |