4
Il Principado
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 55
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 14% | -0.73 |