4
Knicks Factor
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 76
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |