2
Sweet Carol James
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 67
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |