Tworly Bluebell
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 70
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/11
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |