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Tavern Talk
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 24
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 25/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |