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5

Working On It

5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 62

Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y

#5

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Colonial Downs 06/09/2024 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 39 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark06/09/2024 · OR 39 par6/09C9OR 39C6 @ Laurel Park 24/10/2024 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 48 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark24/10/2024 · OR 48 parC6 @ Charles Town 19/01/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f110y Fas 124 · below its mark19/01/2025 · OR 56 par19/01C6OR 56C9 @ Laurel Park 03/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 50 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark03/05/2025 · OR 50 parC9 @ Colonial Downs 28/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 53 · 1m110y Fm 124 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 53 par28/08C9OR 53C9 @ Colonial Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 61 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 61 parC6 @ Charles Town 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 60 · 4f110y Fas 126 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 60 par5/06C6OR 60C9 @ Colonial Downs 26/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 52 parC9 @ Colonial Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 56 · 1m110y Fm 124 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 56 par5/09C9OR 56projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Colonial Downs?3rd6th−3
2026-06-26Colonial Downs?6th9th−3
2026-06-05Charles Town?7th7th0
2025-09-11Colonial Downs?4th7th−3
2025-08-28Colonial Downs?2nd5th−3
2025-05-03Laurel Park?8th11th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/093/055/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength62%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20242nd50/10%89%+0.89
24/10/20248th33/10%13%+0.13
19/01/20258th25/10%13%+0.13
03/05/20258th16/116%22%+0.06
28/08/20252nd11/271%89%+0.18
11/09/20254th3/184%73%-0.11
05/06/20267th20/10%14%+0.14
26/06/20266th25/10%44%+0.44
05/09/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25