IvyArcIvyArc
5

Moroder

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 72

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 25/01/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 59 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/01/2025 · OR 59 par25/01C6OR 59C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/02/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 65 · 6f110y Fas 120 · below its mark15/02/2025 · OR 65 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 28/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark28/01/2026 · OR 75 par28/01C9OR 75C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 07/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 70 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 70 parC6 @ Thistledown 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 69 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 69 par23/04C6OR 69C5 @ Thistledown 12/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 70 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 70 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 70 · 6f 125 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 70 par31/05C8OR 70C5 @ Thistledown 29/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 73 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 70 · 6f 123 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 70 par25/08C8OR 70projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Presque Isle Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-06-29Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-05-31Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-05-12Thistledown?1st-2th+3
2026-04-23Thistledown?1st-1th+2
2026-02-07Tampa Bay Downs?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/017/0231/0525/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength59%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/01/20257th16/116%25%+0.09
15/02/20254th4/179%40%-0.39
28/01/20263rd11/486%33%-0.52
07/02/20264th20/10%67%+0.67
23/04/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
12/05/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
31/05/20264th8/158%40%-0.18
29/06/20266th12/137%0%-0.37
25/08/20263rd11/271%50%-0.21