4
Nicole's Will
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 22% | -0.46 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |