Burnin Turf
10yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |