6
Beach Holiday
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 74
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 10/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 25/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |