4
Keystone Hank
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 79
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |