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5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 77
Punchestown · Punchestown Jumps Opener October 13th Handicap · 1m 30y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | BHA79 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Roscommon | BHA79 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA83 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | BHA84 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | BHA87 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-27 | Curragh | BHA93 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2024 | 20th | 20/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 06/10/2024 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/06/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/06/2025 | 15th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 25/04/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 18/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |