7
Heliogabalus
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 72
Punchestown · Punchestown Jumps Opener October 13th Handicap · 1m 30y
#13
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA75 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Leopardstown | BHA74 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA68 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Listowel | BHA69 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Curragh | BHA71 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-07-29 | Galway | BHA68 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength30%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 04/07/2025 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 29/07/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 16/08/2025 | 13th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 22/09/2025 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 58% | -0.26 |
| 28/07/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |