1
Molto Amichi
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 80
Punchestown · Punchestown Jumps Opener October 13th Handicap · 1m 30y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: BHA73
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA83 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | BHA75 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | BHA73 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Leopardstown | BHA75 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Tipperary | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 04/08/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.08 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 12/04/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.19 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 30/07/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |