IvyArcIvyArc
8

Motta Alta

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 77

Punchestown · Punchestown Jumps Opener October 13th Handicap · 1m 30y

#1

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

65%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful on second of 2 starts in maidens for Jarlath P. Fahey at Limerick (7f) in June and further progress when second on yard/handicap debut at Galway (7f) 7 weeks ago. That form looks solid and her mark looks an exploitable one with more to come. Back over 1m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: BHA76
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m Goo 1299/05C8C8 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 7f Sft 12919/06C8BHA76 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 76 · 7f Yie 136 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 76 par27/0776OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27GalwayBHA763rd3rd0
2026-06-19Limerick?1st1st0
2026-05-09Naas?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0519/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20266th50/10%58%+0.58
19/06/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
27/07/20263rd13/266%86%+0.20