10
Sagasti
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 77
Punchestown · Punchestown Jumps Opener October 13th Handicap · 1m 30y
#5
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | BHA72 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA72 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA70 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA70 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | BHA69 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Dundalk | BHA72 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/10/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 01/07/2026 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 12% | -0.04 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 27/07/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 21% | -0.21 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |