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11

Zaraahmando

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 72

Punchestown · Punchestown Jumps Opener October 13th Handicap · 1m 30y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

15%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran well once more when second of 13 to Cala Bonita in handicap at Galway (8.5f) and confirmed he's in top form when running on to fill the frame again at Navan 2 weeks ago. Eased 2 lb so clearly weighted to go very well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA75 @ Cork 30/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 75 · 1m Yie 121 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 75 par30/0975OR 75BHA74 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 74 · 7f Sft 125 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 74 parBHA74 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 74 · 7f111y Gd 134 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 74 par11/0574OR 74BHA72 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 72 · 1m Gd 132 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 72 parBHA69 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 69 · 1m Goo 139 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 69 par18/0669OR 69BHA73 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 73 · 1m Goo 133 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 73 parBHA74 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m Goo 134 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 74 par25/0774OR 74BHA74 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 74 · 1m98y Yie 124 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 74 parBHA74 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 74 · 1m20y Goo 134 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 74 par2/0974OR 74projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA744th4th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA742nd2nd0
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA743rd3rd0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA733rd3rd0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA692nd2nd0
2026-05-24CurraghBHA726th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0924/0525/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength78%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20255th14/126%69%+0.43
22/03/20264th14/126%73%+0.46
11/05/202613th10/147%8%-0.40
24/05/20266th22/10%72%+0.72
18/06/20262nd11/271%93%+0.22
09/07/20263rd5/174%83%+0.10
25/07/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
30/07/20262nd5/174%92%+0.18
02/09/20264th9/276%79%+0.02