3
Queen Of The Bogs
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 89
Punchestown · Punchestown Premiere Weekend November 21st & 22nd Race · 1m 1f 30y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA92 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Killarney | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-20 | Curragh | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-27 | Curragh | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/07/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 22/08/2025 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 13% | -0.43 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |