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12

Fleur De Provence

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 77

Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden · 1m 1f 30y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/4

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Encouraging efforts when runner-up in 1m maidens at Naas and Gowran in the spring but disappointing upped to 1¼m at Leopardstown when last seen in June, making the running but capitulating badly. Cheekpieces go on back from a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m Sft 12922/03C8C8 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m Goo 12920/05C8C8 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m2f Sft 129 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 80 par4/06C8OR 80projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-04Leopardstown?9th9th0
2026-05-20Gowran Park?2nd2nd0
2026-03-22Naas?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0320/054/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/03/20262nd16/116%89%+0.73
20/05/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02
04/06/20269th5/493%27%-0.66