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9

Saliba

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 77

Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden · 1m 1f 30y

#4

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising enough start at Gowran and Naas but failed to take a step forward at Galway last month and needs to improve for this longer distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 1m Goo 1345/05C8C8 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 1m Gd 13424/06C8C8 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m73y Yie 1341/08C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Galway?5th5th0
2026-06-24Naas?6th6th0
2026-05-05Gowran Park?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0524/061/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/05/20263rd22/10%87%+0.87
24/06/20266th6/168%64%-0.04
01/08/20265th13/266%64%-0.02