Senna's Girl
4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 71
Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden · 1m 1f 30y
#3
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | BHA73 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Naas | BHA76 | 13th | 13th | +0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA79 | 21th | 21th | +0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | BHA68 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 42% | -0.27 |
| 09/07/2025 | 15th | 6/1 | 68% | 7% | -0.62 |
| 16/10/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 15/03/2026 | 21st | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 17/05/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |