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14

Xirivella

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 72

Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden · 1m 1f 30y

#2

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has stepped forward from her debut with good efforts in third in Naas and Navan maidens, not knocked about last time. One to consider upped in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 1294/07C8C8 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR - · 1m Goo 1293/08C8C8 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m20y Goo 1292/09C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Navan?3rd3rd0
2026-08-03Naas?3rd3rd0
2026-07-04Naas?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/073/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20266th16/116%29%+0.13
03/08/20263rd40/10%88%+0.88
02/09/20263rd22/10%83%+0.83