7
Areana
7yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 68
Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 1f 30y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA68 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Curragh | BHA70 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Down Royal | BHA63 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Naas | BHA54 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-12-07 | Navan | ? | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2024-11-17 | Navan | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 11/10/2024 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 62% | -0.23 |
| 06/11/2024 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 17/11/2024 | 11th | 125/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/12/2024 | 19th | 200/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/09/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |