14
Chestnut Palace
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 63
Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 1f 30y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA65 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | BHA68 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Leopardstown | BHA72 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gowran Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Gowran Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Naas | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 09/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |