IvyArcIvyArc
8

Darkdeserthighway

8yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 68

Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 1f 30y

#10

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Left the impression she should have won when second in 22-runner handicap at Leopardstown in August and probably remains in form, unable to land a blow from where she was placed at Down Royal 11 days ago. Wouldn't rule out under good apprentice.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA74 @ Dundalk 19/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 74 · 7f Std 135 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 74 par19/1274OR 74BHA73 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 73 · 1m Std 133 · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 73 parBHA72 @ Dundalk 13/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 72 · 1m Std 142 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 72 par13/0372OR 72BHA66 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 66 · 7f195y Gd 136 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 66 parC7 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 64 · 1m40y Gd 142 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 64 par15/07C7OR 64BHA62 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 62 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 62 · 1m1f Goo 132 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 62 par6/0862OR 62C7 @ Roscommon 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m2f94y Gd 142 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 68 parBHA68 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 68 · 1m2f145y Goo 139 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 68 par4/0968OR 68projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA687th7th0
2026-08-18Roscommon?4th4th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA622nd2nd0
2026-08-03NaasBHA626th6th0
2026-07-15Killarney?8th8th0
2026-07-03BellewstownBHA6610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/123/076/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20255th25/10%67%+0.67
16/01/20263rd8/158%80%+0.22
13/03/20263rd4/179%85%+0.06
03/07/202610th14/126%36%+0.09
15/07/20268th22/10%46%+0.46
03/08/20266th33/10%67%+0.67
06/08/20262nd9/276%95%+0.19
18/08/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
04/09/20267th18/15%54%+0.49