IvyArcIvyArc
3

Lady Arwen

7yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 73

Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 1f 30y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been in the form of her life, winning 3 times since April and running well back at Galway last week despite another slow start. Still looks on a fair mark back handicapping and must be considered.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA63 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 20 · OR 63 · 7f Hvy 123 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 63 par2/1163OR 63BHA62 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m Std 132 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 62 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 59 · 1m Std 141 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 59 par6/0359OR 59C9 @ Gowran Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 60 · 7f180y Sft 142 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 60 parBHA64 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 64 · 1m50y Yie 134 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 64 par25/0464OR 64BHA62 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 62 · 1m1f100y Yie 132 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 62 parBHA61 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 61 · 1m1f135y Goo 132 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 61 par20/0761OR 61BHA68 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 68 · 1m123y Yie 138 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 68 parBHA73 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 73 · 1m98y Sft 127 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 73 par8/0973OR 73projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08GalwayBHA732nd2nd0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA681st1st0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA611st1st0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA6210th10th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA646th6th0
2026-04-09Gowran Park?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/119/0420/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/11/202512th33/10%42%+0.42
30/01/202612th40/10%15%+0.15
06/03/202611th50/10%17%+0.17
09/04/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
25/04/20266th10/147%62%+0.14
12/06/202610th18/15%36%+0.30
20/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
28/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
08/09/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02