13
Lily Parr
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 62
Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 1f 30y
#14
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 8.5)
Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | BHA65 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA66 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA67 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Killarney | BHA67 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2025 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 29/05/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.71 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 18/05/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 18/08/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |