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Oscar Nominee

3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 81

Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 1f 30y

#1

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

31%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 9.5f Wolverhampton maiden on debut and good 2 lengths second to an improver in novice there in March. Failed to give her running making turf debut for new yard at Killarney on return a month ago but retains potential now handicapping.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 17/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 12117/0244 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 1359/034BHA84 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 84 · 1m30y Gd 136 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 84 par21/0884OR 84projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KillarneyBHA848th8th0
2026-03-09Wolverhampton42nd2nd0
2026-02-17Wolverhampton41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/029/0321/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/02/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
09/03/20262nd15/890%88%-0.03
21/08/20268th22/10%0%0.00