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11

Sweet Baby Zou

3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 72

Punchestown · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 1m 1f 30y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

31%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark in Gowran handicap in June and good efforts under this apprentice the last twice, making her effort on a different side of the track to the winner when a well-backed second at Down Royal 11 days ago. Rider can claim full 7 lb again now and she's one to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA57
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 7f Sft 1298/04C8C8 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 22nd of 24 · OR - · 6f Sft 129BHA62 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 62 · 7f111y Gd 130 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 62 par11/0562OR 62BHA59 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Goo 138 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 59 · 1m1f120y Yie 139 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 59 par1/0659OR 59BHA57 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 57 · 1m1f190y Goo 134 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 57 parBHA70 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 70 · 1m98y Yie 140 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 70 par31/0770OR 70BHA70 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 1m30y Gd 135 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 70 parBHA68 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 68 · 1m2f145y Goo 132 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 68 par4/0968OR 68projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA682nd2nd0
2026-08-21KillarneyBHA703rd3rd0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA706th6th0
2026-06-05FairyhouseBHA5711th11th0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA591st1st0
2026-05-29Down RoyalBHA598th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0429/0531/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/202610th25/10%25%+0.25
19/04/202622nd80/10%9%+0.09
11/05/20267th8/158%54%-0.04
29/05/20268th9/488%46%-0.42
01/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
05/06/202611th11/893%23%-0.70
31/07/20266th13/266%71%+0.05
21/08/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
04/09/20262nd3/184%92%+0.08