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11

Churchill Gale

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 42

Punchestown · Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 1f 30y

#13

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless for Tom McCourt and shaped as if amiss back from 10 months off for new yard at Navan recently.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA60 @ Curragh 31/08/2024 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 119 · beat its mark31/08/2024 · OR 60 par31/0860OR 60BHA60 @ Leopardstown 19/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 60 · 1m1f Gd 132 · beat its mark19/06/2025 · OR 60 parBHA59 @ Naas 05/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 59 · 1m2f84y Goo 139 · below its mark05/07/2025 · OR 59 par5/0759OR 59BHA58 @ Tipperary 08/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 58 · 7f100y Goo 140 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 58 parC9 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 55 · 1m Goo 132 · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 55 par2/09C9OR 55BHA52 @ Punchestown 16/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m1f58y Goo 129 · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 52 parBHA51 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 51 · 1m3f10y Yie 127 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 51 par29/0951OR 51BHA50 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f150y Std 128 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 50 parBHA44 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 44 · 1m2f10y Gd 126 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 44 par5/0944OR 44projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA4419th19th0
2025-11-05DundalkBHA508th8th0
2025-09-29Down RoyalBHA516th6th0
2025-09-16PunchestownBHA524th4th0
2025-09-02Gowran Park?9th9th0
2025-08-08TipperaryBHA587th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/088/0829/095/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20246th20/10%29%+0.29
19/06/202510th66/10%44%+0.44
05/07/202512th33/10%8%+0.08
08/08/20257th9/153%25%-0.28
02/09/20259th66/10%47%+0.47
16/09/20254th40/10%77%+0.77
29/09/20256th22/10%62%+0.62
05/11/20258th28/10%36%+0.36
05/09/202619th50/10%10%+0.10