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13

Duchess Anne

5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 41

Punchestown · Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 1f 30y

#7

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not so good behind Spiritofthedawn at Navan last time but claims on her previous efforts at Naas and Gowran and is still quite lightly raced.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Ballinrobe 23/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f163y Gd 13023/06C8C8 @ Roscommon 01/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m4f17y Yie 130C8 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f135y Goo 13821/07C8BHA50 @ Navan 06/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 50 · 1m2f10y Gd 133 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 50 parBHA47 @ Navan 08/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 47 · 1m2f30y Yie 129 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 47 par8/1047OR 47C8 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 43 · 1m1f100y Hvy 133 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 43 parBHA40 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 40 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 40 par22/0740OR 40BHA40 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 40 · 1m1f110y Goo 122 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 40 parBHA43 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 43 · 1m20y Goo 125 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 43 par2/0943OR 43projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA438th8th0
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA402nd2nd0
2026-07-22NaasBHA404th4th0
2025-10-20Gowran Park?6th6th0
2025-10-08NavanBHA4714th14th0
2025-09-06NavanBHA5011th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/066/0922/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength88%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/06/20255th18/15%33%+0.28
01/07/20256th50/10%55%+0.55
21/07/20258th28/10%13%+0.13
06/09/202511th25/10%44%+0.44
08/10/202514th18/15%19%+0.13
20/10/20256th150/10%29%+0.29
22/07/20264th22/10%82%+0.82
25/07/20262nd9/276%92%+0.15
02/09/20268th9/276%53%-0.23