4
Patrick Street
7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 51
Punchestown · Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 1f 30y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 7.7)
Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA82 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA50 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | BHA83 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | BHA81 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength84%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 09/04/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.38 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 69% | -0.12 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 57% | -0.33 |