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Rockbury Lad

7yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 52

Punchestown · Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 1f 30y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a division of this handicap in 2024 but just been going through the motions of late and tricky to fancy in a change of headgear for all he's on a career-low mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA61 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 61 · 1m Std 131 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 61 par30/0161OR 61BHA62 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 62 · 7f Std 122 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 62 · 1m Gd 132 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 62 par15/0562OR 62BHA59 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 59 · 1m1f Sft 141 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m1f GF 141 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 59 par18/0659OR 59BHA56 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 56 · 7f211y Gd 138 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 56 parBHA56 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 56 · 7f195y Gd 126 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 56 par3/0756OR 56BHA59 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m Std 141 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 59 parBHA54 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 54 · 1m1f100y GF 136 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 54 par12/0854OR 54projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Gowran ParkBHA546th6th0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA599th9th0
2026-07-03BellewstownBHA567th7th0
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA5612th12th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA596th6th0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA5910th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0111/063/0712/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength37%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20262nd25/10%92%+0.92
06/03/20263rd8/158%85%+0.27
15/05/202610th12/137%36%-0.01
11/06/202610th25/10%44%+0.44
18/06/20266th14/126%62%+0.35
02/07/202612th12/137%21%-0.15
03/07/20267th28/10%57%+0.57
12/07/20269th11/271%38%-0.33
12/08/20266th10/147%64%+0.17