16
De Songbird
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 47
Punchestown · Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 1f 30y
#10
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 12.0 /10 (raw 11.3)
Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | BHA49 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | BHA54 | 26th | 26th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | BHA58 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | BHA61 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 15/05/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 22/08/2026 | 26th | 40/1 | 0% | 4% | +0.04 |
| 05/09/2026 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |