15
Keilah
6yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 54
Punchestown · Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 1f 30y
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | BHA54 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | BHA58 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA103 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA60 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Curragh | BHA61 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 87% | +0.34 |
| 21/08/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 93% | +0.38 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 12/08/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/09/2026 | 15th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |