6
Nephin Mountain
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 58
Punchestown · Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 1f 30y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | BHA57 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA53 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | BHA54 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA55 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | BHA51 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Down Royal | BHA51 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.12 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 79% | +0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.34 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |