4
Blake's Monarch
2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 86
Redcar · racingtv.com Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength81%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 10th | 6th | +4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-11 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |