2
Fern Clyde
2yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 69
Redcar · Watch RacingTV Free For 31 Days Selling Stakes · 5f 217y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Beverley | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |