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5

Ephron

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70

Redcar · Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

85%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally in handicaps at Hamilton (1m) in August but not for the first time this year he failed to back that up when sixth of 9 at Carlisle (1m) 4 weeks ago. Not discounted on best form for all he's tricky to predict.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS22/0825 @ Newcastle 25/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1303 @ York 10/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS10/1036 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 7f219y GF 131 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m2f42y Goo 127 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 67 par22/055OR 675 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 67 · 1m1f Goo 132 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 68 · 1m2f5y Goo 144 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 68 par29/065OR 685 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 67 · 1m68y Gd 127 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 70 · 7f173y Sft 136 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 70 par19/085OR 70projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Carlisle56th6th0
2026-08-01Hamilton51st1st0
2026-06-29Pontefract57th7th0
2026-06-09Carlisle52nd2nd0
2026-05-22Haydock55th5th0
2026-04-30Redcar61st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0830/0429/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/202513th50/10%0%0.00
25/09/20256th7/163%38%-0.26
10/10/20257th100/10%14%+0.14
30/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
22/05/20265th11/271%60%-0.11
09/06/20262nd4/179%89%+0.10
29/06/20267th11/486%14%-0.71
01/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
19/08/20266th5/174%38%-0.36