Harswell Ruby
4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 70
Redcar · Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 5 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 64% | -0.25 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 73% | -0.14 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 14/08/2026 | 13th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |