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4

Henry Halflight

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70

Redcar · Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#8

Rank

Odds

150/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed the promise he'd shown on debut when winning a 9-runner maiden at Newcastle (7f) in March. Proved easy to back and in nothing like the same form on handicap debut at Southwell a month later and betting can likely prove useful on this return/turf debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 7f14y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS31/0144 @ Newcastle 15/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m5y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS15/0244 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS12/0344 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 71 · 7f14y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 71 par5/044OR 71projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-05Southwell48th7th+1
2026-03-12Newcastle41st0th+1
2026-02-15Newcastle47th6th+1
2026-01-31Newcastle42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0115/0212/035/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength10%

Delivery trend -15.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/01/20262nd80/10%75%+0.75
15/02/20267th22/10%25%+0.25
12/03/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
05/04/20268th33/10%0%0.00