12
Just Typical
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 60
Redcar · Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.13 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 77% | -0.05 |