IvyArcIvyArc
9

Mount King

6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 63

Redcar · Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#6

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Switched to blinkers when getting off the mark for the season at Pontefract in July. Good second at the same course next time but it's now over 3 years since he last won away from that venue and finished a never dangerous sixth over an extended mile at Beverley 17 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 67 · 1m Goo 127 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 67 par26/045OR 675 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 66 · 1m6y Goo 126 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m6y Goo 139 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 64 par21/065OR 645 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m6y Goo 129 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 62 · 1m6y Goo 137 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 62 par17/076OR 625 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 1m6y Goo 137 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 65 · 7f218y Goo 125 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 65 par14/085OR 654 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 65 · 7f219y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 64 · 1m100y Sft 131 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 64 par29/085OR 64projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Beverley56th6th0
2026-08-22Redcar44th3rd+1
2026-08-14Thirsk59th9th0
2026-07-26Pontefract52nd2nd0
2026-07-17Pontefract61st2nd−1
2026-07-07Pontefract55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/047/0714/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20268th16/116%36%+0.21
22/05/20268th12/137%22%-0.15
21/06/20266th13/266%17%-0.49
07/07/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
17/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
26/07/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
14/08/20269th11/142%43%+0.01
22/08/20264th16/116%67%+0.51
29/08/20266th13/266%44%-0.21