11
Pisanello
9yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61
Redcar · Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength40%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Leicester | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Leicester | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |