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6

Shadow Run

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69

Redcar · Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#13

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form in Ireland for Michael O'Callaghan and ran well on stable debut when second of 6 in 7f Doncaster handicap last month. Two lesser runs have followed and his stamina isn't assured now tackling 1m for the first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 23/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 13323/08C8C8 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 131C8 @ Naas 12/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 13112/10C8BHA70 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 70 · 5f Sft 138 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 70 parBHA74 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 74 · 5f Sft 123 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 74 par4/0474OR 74BHA72 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 119 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 7f6y GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 72 par1/084OR 724 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 72 · 7f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 71 · 7f75y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 71 par29/084OR 71projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Beverley46th5th+1
2026-08-14Thirsk45th4th+1
2026-08-01Doncaster42nd1st+1
2026-06-03CurraghBHA7210th13th−2
2026-04-04CorkBHA744th7th−2
2026-03-22NaasBHA702nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0822/031/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/202511th16/116%23%+0.07
18/09/20256th11/271%55%-0.17
12/10/20256th20/10%0%0.00
22/03/20262nd13/266%93%+0.27
04/04/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
03/06/202610th12/137%18%-0.19
01/08/20262nd18/15%80%+0.75
14/08/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
29/08/20266th28/10%29%+0.29